It looks like millennials have officially taken over the City of Toronto, but they won’t hold their top position long as Generation Z is on the rise.
Statistics Canada recently released its population estimates for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, and fortunately, the Centre for Urban Research and Land Development sifted through the data for some key takeaways.
We did our own sifting through CUR’s report and we want to highlight a few stats that stood out to us.
More than half of immigration in the GGH flowed into Toronto
Temporary and permanent residents flocked to Toronto
by tens of thousands, accounting for 55% of the GGH’s new residents, the majority of which were permanent. The municipality with the second highest immigration rate was Peel with a 20% share. With Toronto being the most desirable city for new residents, it makes sense that boosting housing supply should be prioritized.
The GTA lost people to surrounding areas
As you may be aware, there is an affordability issue in the GTA. The average price of a new single-family home is still well above $1 million
, and the average price of a new condo is approaching $800,000. It comes to no surprise that many people left the GTA in search of more affordable housing. Between 2016 and 2018, approximately 50,000 people left the GTA, many of which headed to Simcoe County, Niagara
, and Waterloo
Millennials outnumber baby boomers in Toronto
Move over boomers, millennials are here, and they are poised to become the dominant homebuying force in the GGH. More than half of all millennials in the GGH lived in Toronto and Peel. We posted recently about how millennials are actually shifting to the strongest buying force in the recreational home market
Generation Z growing quickly
Millennials and boomers may be the largest cohorts, but the fastest growing group is Generation Z. From 2016 to 2018, Generation Z grew by an average of 150,000 people a year. Millennials only grew by 60,000 per year. Members of Generation Z were born after 1996, so this demographic is pretty young still, with the oldest being 23-24 years old. But, this is the age when people start thinking about buying a home, so it will only be another year or two before Generation Z is a more significant player in the housing market.
Young buyers heading to the burbs
Millennials and Generation X are looking to the outskirts of the GTA for more affordable housing, and many of them are looking for more space to start families. CUR says that it’s likely Generation Z is being dragged along. As we mentioned, more of Generation Z will be looking to move out on their own soon, so expect that buying and renting power to make a shift to more dense urban areas in the near future.
Check out the full CUR report here!